NEW DELHI: The recent scare about China diverting the course of the Brahmaputra River is not the first time that India has expressed concerns about its Communist neighbour's hydel projects, and is unlikely to be the last.
Beijing not only has a host of projects lined up on the Brahmaputra River — 24 according to some reports — but has also planned at least five, which have a cumulative power generation capacity of about 2,000 mw, for the Arun River (Bamchu) that is called Kosi when it enters India.
New Delhi isn't the only country voicing these concerns as China's abhorrence of any proposal to share natural resources has caused consternation in other south-east Asian nations like Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Laos as well. Beijing is planning to build three more mega dams on the downstream Mekong River in addition six existing ones. Mekong flows these lower riparian states.
China's increasing economic prowess has made it immune from any international pressure. Hence, all the lower riparian states around it have no option but to fend for themselves.
India's putative future losses because of China's preoccupation with mega dams is pegged at the highest among all the other south-east Asian nations since most of its major rivers originate in Tibet.
To make matters worse, any mention of surveillance by satellites tends to evoke vociferous allegations of snooping from China. Beijing admitted as late as last year that it was building the Zangmu dam on the Brahmaputra River since the satellite imagery was a giveaway.
"China has always been unapologetic about its refusal to enter into water sharing agreements with any states. It has always maintained that it would take into account interests of the lower riparian states but about half of the world's total number of large dams are in China. India, with so many of its major rivers originating in Tibet, is going to be among the worst affected. The issue is usually soft pedalled by the water resources ministry, and there is never any international pressure on this though the list of countries suffering because of China's refusal is quite long including Russia, Kazakhstan, Burma, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos," says strategic affairs expert Brahma Chellaney.
However, there is hardly anything secret about these projects. Most of them are in the public domain, and the companies executing them have never made any bones about it.
Kanggong, Qudang, Sangdangla, Shali and Laxiang are the projects lined up on the Bamchu by China. At 420MW, Qudang has the highest output.
China has always maintained that the projects on the Brahmaputra are not storage type, but run of the river. But Chellaney says India may do well to keep an eye on what's happening in Mekong, where some of the dams that have been conceived are of 6,000-8,000 MW capacity. India's highest installed hydropower capacity is about 1,500 MW. "China has a way of gradually increasing the size of projects. They have done that in Mekong," Chellaney says.
The problem is not just about dams. "As lower riparian states, anything that China does that may change the nature of the aquifer will have implications for both India and Nepal. Pollution in rivers too is a matter of concern. Besides, there is no water sharing agreement in place," says S K Sharma, former member of the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) and ADB consultant on climate change.
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